The development of El Nino this year is expected to quell a trend of high-activity Atlantic hurricane seasons.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a near-normal or below-normal Atlantic hurricane season due to El Nino, a disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the Tropical Pacific that cuts down the formation and intensity of named storms and hurricanes with wind shear. NOAA’s hurricane outlook calls for eight to 13 named storms, three to six hurricanes and 1 to 2 major hurricanes of Category 3 (sustained winds of 111 mph) or greater.
The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and lasts through November. The average season has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The Atlantic Ocean has been in an era of high-activity since 1995—12 of the last 20 seasons have seen high activity—but El Nino and cooler ocean temperatures could stifle the trend, according to Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Last month well-known hurricane forecasters William M. Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach forecasted nine named storms, three hurricanes and 1 major hurricane during the 2014 hurricane season.
The duo from Colorado State University said there is a lower-than-average chance a major hurricane makes landfall in the US this year. Over the last 100 years, there is an average 52 percent chance of a major hurricane striking the US East Coast. Gray and Klotzbach’s research concluded there is a 35 percent chance of this happening in 2014.
Even though we expect El Nino to suppress the number of storms this season, it’s important to remember it takes only one land-falling storm to cause a disaster,” said Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA administrator, in a statement.
To illustrate the point, Superstorm Sandy was technically not a hurricane when it made landfall at southern New Jersey in late October 2012. Primarily storm surge and inland flooding caused hundreds of billions of dollars in damages. The storm caused about $18.75 billion in insured property losses. The total does not include payments made by the National Flood Insurance Program.
This year, NOAA said it is launching a new tool to show communities their storm surge flood threat. A map will be released for areas under threat when a tropical storm or hurricane watch is issued.
Chad Hemenway is Managing Editor of Advisen News. He has more than 15 years of journalist experience at a variety of online, daily, and weekly publications. He has covered P&C insurance news since 2007, and he has experience writing about all P&C lines as well as regulation and litigation. Chad won a Jesse H. Neal Award for Best Single Article in 2014 for his coverage of the insurance implications of traumatic brain injuries and Best News Coverage in 2013 for coverage of Superstorm Sandy. Contact Chad at 212.897.4824 or [email protected].
